Britain’s CPTPP progress holds few clues for outcome of Beijing, Taiwan bids, analysts say
- Britain moves to final phase of bid to join 11 members in world’s largest trade bloc, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership
- Beijing has been discussing the accession procedure with members of the bloc, but its strained relationship with Australia could get in the way
In announcing the confirmation, the UK government said that International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan was visiting Indonesia, Japan and Singapore this week for final CPTPP negotiations and to strengthen the UK’s Indo-Pacific ties.
Britain hopes to join CPTPP in 2022, has no date yet for US trade pact
But Chinese University of Hong Kong international trade law professor Bryan Mercurio was among those who said “special cases” Beijing and Taiwan should not necessarily feel buoyed by Britain’s progress. The UK began negotiations in June last year to join the CPTPP while Beijing did so in mid-September, followed by Taiwan six days later. Last Thursday, China’s Ministry of Commerce said it was in the process of negotiating with CPTPP members regarding the procedures to accede to the pact.
Chinese and Taiwanese trade pact bids on CPTPP agenda this week: report
Taiwan’s application to the bloc was also being discussed, the Post reported last week.
Mercurio said the example of Britain “shows the other applicants stand a high chance although I’d say South Korea and possibly even Thailand would join before China and Taiwan although it’s hard to say if Thailand is really serious”.
“Japan and Australia, and maybe other members in the bloc, will not seriously consider China at the moment.”
Joining the bloc will be economically rewarding as members stand to tap markets currently worth a combined GDP of about £8.4 trillion, according to data compiled by the UK trade department.
Keen on joining major trade pacts, China vows greater access to ‘vast market’
The UK for example stands to grow its economy by more than £100 billion upon its membership given the increased amount of free trade with the 11 member countries, leading UK business organisation CBI’s President Lord Karan Bilimoria said.
At the heart of Beijing’s problem was its strained trading relationship with member Australia over the past two years but CPTPP members would also likely set strict conditions for mainland China’s entry into the alliance on matters it had struggled to make reforms in such as data transparency, subsidisation of state-owned enterprises and intellectual property rights, Chaise said.
Australia needs to ‘sit down’ with China over regional trade pact application
“I am not saying these will become obstacles to China and Taiwan’s accession but the dedicated [CPTPP] Accession Working Groups will take more time to process Taiwan and China’s first phase,” he said.
Historically, Beijing and Taiwan’s applications to trade deals had been in lockstep with approvals for Beijing often coming first, in line with the recognised one-China policy, trade experts said.
A difficult first step for Beijing at the CPTPP would also slow down Taiwan’s progress. Chaisse said the CPTPP would likely assign working committees to review mainland China and Taiwan’s applications but the bloc would process both at the same time if successful.
As for other Asian economies keen on the CPTPP, Chaisse cautioned tough entry requirements into the bloc such as the removal of subsidies for state-owned enterprises that China would struggle with, environmental protection and the elimination of forced labour could set back some ambitions.
“The CPTPP requirements are too high in particular for Asean members namely Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, Philippines,” he said.
By the same token, while these countries might have different issues that members would have to consider, none would have problems as complex as China’s, CIBEL Centre colleague international economic law specialist Weihuan Zhou said.